The 2024 European Parliament (EP) elections have set the stage for a new political cycle that is likely to impact European Union (EU) migration policy for the next five years. This article explores the expected policy trends in Europe and considers measures companies can implement to navigate the uncertainties and potentially volatile political context ahead.
Election Outcomes and Political Landscape
The European People’s Party (EPP) has emerged as the largest parliamentary group, securing a significant number of seats and gaining agenda-setting power. Despite weaker results compared to the last election, other mainstream parties still maintain substantial influence. Notably, far-right parties have gained more seats across various EU countries. However, their differing ideologies prevent them from forming a unified front to significantly influence policies.
EPP's Immigration Manifesto
The EPP's immigration manifesto emphasizes "controlled" migration while respecting fundamental rights. Key priorities include:
Future EU Immigration Policy Trends
Significant or ambitious changes in economic migration policy at the EU level are unlikely. Existing immigration avenues will likely remain, with a focus on finalizing current negotiations and monitoring the implementation of adopted legislation such as the Blue Card and Single Permit. Major breakthroughs in intra-EU mobility provisions are also unexpected, except for potential rulings from the European Court of Justice.
Impact of European Council Presidencies
The upcoming presidencies of the European Council, held by Hungary (July-December 2024) and Poland (January-June 2025), are expected to influence immigration policies. Both countries have recently adopted more restrictive measures, including increased fines for illegal employment and stricter visa and work permit regulations.
Europe’s Skills Shortages and Aging Population
European policymakers face the challenge of balancing conflicting objectives. The twin (green and digital) transition remains high on the EU policy agenda, requiring a skilled workforce that Europe currently lacks. The aging population exacerbates this need, highlighting the necessity of attracting and retaining talent to sustain economic growth and innovation.
Recommendations for Global Mobility Professionals
To navigate the evolving political landscape, companies employing non-EU talent should consider the following actions:
Election Outcomes and Political Landscape
The European People’s Party (EPP) has emerged as the largest parliamentary group, securing a significant number of seats and gaining agenda-setting power. Despite weaker results compared to the last election, other mainstream parties still maintain substantial influence. Notably, far-right parties have gained more seats across various EU countries. However, their differing ideologies prevent them from forming a unified front to significantly influence policies.
EPP's Immigration Manifesto
The EPP's immigration manifesto emphasizes "controlled" migration while respecting fundamental rights. Key priorities include:
- Strengthening external borders
- Enhancing the screening and monitoring of irregular arrivals
- Expanding Frontex’s staff
- Developing IT and other infrastructure to protect EU borders
Future EU Immigration Policy Trends
Significant or ambitious changes in economic migration policy at the EU level are unlikely. Existing immigration avenues will likely remain, with a focus on finalizing current negotiations and monitoring the implementation of adopted legislation such as the Blue Card and Single Permit. Major breakthroughs in intra-EU mobility provisions are also unexpected, except for potential rulings from the European Court of Justice.
Impact of European Council Presidencies
The upcoming presidencies of the European Council, held by Hungary (July-December 2024) and Poland (January-June 2025), are expected to influence immigration policies. Both countries have recently adopted more restrictive measures, including increased fines for illegal employment and stricter visa and work permit regulations.
Europe’s Skills Shortages and Aging Population
European policymakers face the challenge of balancing conflicting objectives. The twin (green and digital) transition remains high on the EU policy agenda, requiring a skilled workforce that Europe currently lacks. The aging population exacerbates this need, highlighting the necessity of attracting and retaining talent to sustain economic growth and innovation.
Recommendations for Global Mobility Professionals
To navigate the evolving political landscape, companies employing non-EU talent should consider the following actions:
- Invest in IT Tools for Compliance: Business traveler populations will face increased scrutiny. Equipping travel/mobility departments with IT assessment and compliance tools can help manage compliance for large volumes of business travelers, reduce costs, and minimize business risks.
- Monitor Policy and Geo-Political Trends: Staying informed about policy changes and geopolitical trends can help anticipate and prepare for necessary adjustments in mobility departments, recruitment strategies, and workforce management.
- Engage with Policymakers: Proactively engaging with policymakers to communicate company needs and successes can influence policy decisions. Despite campaign narratives, policymakers often respond pragmatically to the business community's input.
- Strengthened external borders and enhanced security measures.
- Improved cooperation with third countries on migration issues.
- Increased focus on compliance and enforcement of immigration regulations.
- Potential for companies to influence policy through proactive engagement.
- Potential shift towards stricter immigration controls and enforcement measures.
- Slowdown in the EU legislative process due to political volatility.
- Continued skills shortages and labor market challenges due to restrictive immigration policies.
- Uncertainty and increased compliance burden for companies employing non-EU talent.
